Throwing stuff at the internet to see what sticks
Friday, March 14, 2003 Oscar Predictions
I just got a threatening letter from the International Federation of Bloggers, Diarists, and Online Journalers. It seems I’m dangerously low on my quota of traditional entries, and if I don’t churn out some copy about some standard topics toot-sweet, they’re going to hack into my Blogger account and replace everything I’ve written with jokes about Viagra and Mahir. Now, last year I posted my Oscar™ predictions pretty late in the process, and I think that gave my prognostications an accuracy they otherwise wouldn’t have had. But not this year. Thanks to the IFBDOJ, I guess I’d better open that envolope right the hell now.
By the way, life is short, so please imagine your own ™s where appropriate in today’s entry.
Everyone says this is really a two-way race between Chicago and The Hours. Of course, we all know what happens in two-way races: the contenders split the vote and the Oscar ends up going to Marisa Tomei. Fortunately for Chicago and The Hours, Marisa Tomei is not nominated for Best Picture this year. Unfortunately for Chicago and The Hours, The Two Towers is. And that’s what’s going to win Best Picture. Don’t believe me? Fine, let’s look at the factors.
First of all, The Hours and Chicago have a couple of serious drawbacks that most people are failing to take into account. The fact that The Hours was adapted froom a book and the title changed from The Days because the studio felt that moviegoers would be reluctant to see a movie that sounded so long, kind of detracts from that movie’s gravitas. As do the shootouts and car chases added at the last minute. And Chicago’s dirty little secret is the Catherine Zeta-Jones curse. Her participation kills its chances of winning Best Picture, just as it did for Traffic, America’s Sweethearts, and Splitting Heirs. So that leaves three nominees.
Gangs of New York isn’t going to win because a) Martin Scorcese already has his Best Director award in the bag because even though nobody especially wants to reward him for this particular movie, everyone knows he’s been wating on his Oscar for almost as long as he’s been trying to make Gangs, and one major award for this movie is plenty; b) the last time the Academy gave a Best Picture award to a Leo movie, the backlash was so devastating that James Cameron got demoted from King of the World to Maker of Documentaries for Basic Cable Channels, and nobody wants to see that happen to Marty, and c) enough of John C. Reilly, already – the guy’s in three of the five Best Picture nominees, and if the other two aren’t going to win then this one sure as hell isn’t.
And The Pianist? Forget it. The only time Foreign Holocaust films clean up is when they’re in the Documentary category, and the last time the Academy made an exception to that rule they had to spend weeks lint-rolling Roberto Benigni off of their tuxedos. Besides, it’s bad enough that the aisles of the Kodak Theater will be clogged, Blues Brothers style, with law-enforcement personnel waiting to nab Roman Polanski’s statutory raping ass; they’re not going to take the additionl risk of sending a Best Picture statue to the Personal Effects room of the LA County lockup.
So that leaves The Two Towers, a nominee that enjoys several distinct advantages which the others don’t. First of all, since it’s not nominated for any other major awards, the voters feel like this is their only chance to give it one. Secondly, if they don’t they’re going to feel obligated to give next year’s Best Picture Oscar to The Return of the King, and nobody wants that foregone conclusion hanging over their heads. And thirdly, the movie’s title may confuse some of the more ignorant and easily confused voters into thinking it’s about September 11, which is an irresistible little morsel of Best Picture bait right there. So, The Two Towers it is, in an upset. You can’t argue with my logic.
Now that I’ve gone through all that, I don’t really have time to talk about the other awards. But that’s okay, because I don’t know the details of those other races quite as well and I’m not sure if I’d be able to bring the same level of insight and prescience to bear on them. But it’s going to be a great night anyway, because I’m going to be the only one who accurately predicted the Best Picture award, aside from a few deluded fanboys who’ll be sitting through the whole broadcast blowing on their twenty-sided dice for luck.
And if I’m wrong, don’t blame me; blame IFBDOJ.
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Speaking of awards, thank you for the Diarist Award for last quarter. I want to be Jupiter and lie down in the firmament and make love to everybody! I kiss you! posted by M. Giant 3:20 PM 0 comments